Phil Murphy, the entire legislature, and a host of down-ballot races are subject to the will of the voters today across all 21 counties. If you’re an experienced New Jersey political watcher like yours truly, Save Jerseyans? Then there are a number of things you’re keeping a close eye on…
Here are a few of the most critical items to watch this evening if you want to develop your own list ahead of tonight’s returns:
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Did early voting give the Democrats a decisive edge? Or did they simply bank “high propensity votes”?
Trafalgar’s new poll (showing Jack at 4-points back and possibly closing) pegged Democrat turnout at 18-points higher than GOP turnout when the dust ultimately settles. Analysis of early voting to date (including VBMs) suggests the Dem advantage may’ve been more like 13-points. That’s a potentially significant difference if (see below) Democrat machines aren’t cranking hard throughout November 2nd. Make no mistake about it… if Jack upsets Phil, it’ll be primarly because a combination of Dem defections and weak Democrat turnout robbed Murphy of a second term. There’s > one million more registered D’s than R’s in the Garden State. It’s not enough for Republicans to outperform in statewide contests; the Dems typically need to underperform, too. Again, there’s early indications that early voting this cycle simply banked “high propensity” Democrat voters who were likely to show up anyway.
Do South Jersey and the Jersey Shore keep trending red?
Polling has shown Governor Murphy and Joe Biden Brandon are increasingly unpopular in South Jersey and the Jersey Shore. If Democrats somehow lose state senate contests in LD2 (Atlantic), 8 (Burlco/Atlantic), 11 (Monmouth) AND 16 up in Central Jersey? Steve Sweeney’s grip on the Senate presidency could even be at stake. A big GOP night in South Jersey (e.g. how do Jack and the Republican ticket do in bellwether Atlantic County?) could signal a potential power-shift in Democrat politics and impact not just legislative redistricting but also tell us something about the 2022 congressional races in NJ-02 and NJ-03.
Are the Democrat machines working for Phil? Or sitting on their hands?
There has been at least one published report of Democrat half-assing their GOTV in Senator Stack’s Union City stronghold (he’s apparently pissed that Murphy ditched him for a Bernie Sanders rally). I’ve independently heard it, too, via a reliable source. In 2009, New Jersey’s major Democrat machine regions didn’t fire on all cylinders for Jon Corzine and the end result was a modest Christie win. It’s no secret that the boss class doesn’t love Murphy, but they can’t be seen as overtly working against him either since the public polling still suggests he’s favored to win. Pay close attention to what they’re saying about turnout in Newark, Camden, and Hudson County today.
Some counties are more predictive than others…
- Bergen – Republicans in the modern era win statewide when Democrat wins here are modest; if it’s a blue blowout in the burbs? Jack’s probably finished. It’s only a couple or few points in favor of Murphy? Could be a long night… or week.
- Morris – A reddish county that’s trending purple. Jack needs to do well in Morris’s affluent suburbs – the Christie heartland in ’09 and ’13 – to counter whatever comes out of the blue urban centers.
- Somerset/Burlington – two suburban counties that have trended blue in recent years. Both feature competitive legislative contests this year, and the Somerset GOP is hoping to win two commissioner seats. Similar analysis to Morris above… if Republicans are going to start winning statewide again, suburban voters in these counties need to come home.
- Middlesex – Jack won’t win Middlesex. However, if he’s going to do well in this statewide fight, he needs to show strength in places like Old Bridge heavily populated by senior citizens and working class “Trump” voters.
- Atlantic – The Boardwalk Empire is a bellwether. Christie took it by a few points in 2009. Guadagno got smoked here by double-digits in 2017. Those results were roughly reflected in the statewide results. No other country has suffered as badly from the Murphy lockdown as Atlantic in light of its economic dependence on tourism. If there’s going to be a moderate Dem/unaffiliated voter revolt against King Phil? This is where you’d see it.
Cumberland – The Democratic pinelands outpost isn’t populous, but it’s a predictive blend of working class white voters and Hispanic immigrants that’s been increasingly competitive as of late. South Jersey’s Jeff Van Drew and Mike Testa Jr. both do well here. If Jack’s going to win? He should be competitive here, too. - Gloucester – Another bellwether South Jersey county, and easily the most split-down-the-middle of any below Trenton. Jack should win Steve Sweeney’s home county if he’s going to be successful statewide. A loss here would be a very bad sign for the GOP ticket.
- Ocean/Monmouth – These two counties accounted for Chris Christie’s margin of victory in 2009. The vote-rich “northern” Jersey Shore isn’t just a must-win; Jack will need major margins coming out of both counties. If he doesn’t hit or exceed 2/3 of the vote in Ocean? Not good. Key to Republican success would be recapturing senior voters who bolted the party in 2020 over COVID-19 fears.
Do Election Day voting issues play a role in the final outcome?
Every election features last minute court appearances, ballot challenges, wild allegations, and local recounts. We’ll see all of that in New Jersey. Widespread technology issues were reported on Tuesday morning across numerous counties related to wi-fi connections and router issues. Some of those voters ultimately cast provisional ballots. If we have some close races tonight/tomorrow morning? Those provisional ballots may come into play. BTW – if you experience issues, here’s some advice from the NJGOP’s executive director.
Does the finale play out more like 1993? Or 1997?
I don’t think Jack Ciattarelli wins by 6-8 points, folks. I also don’t see a Murphy blowout in the making. The range of likely possibilities is a narrow Jack win (< 3 points) to a moderate Murphy win (mid-single digits). That’s my gut. I’ve been wrong before!
Now, it will be closer than projected – not all too unlike Christine Whitman’s 1993 defeat of Jim Florio – if Jack prevails this evening or whenever the final votes are counted and confirmed. You’ll be able to hear Democrats’ screaming and breaking things all the way from Cape May to Hackensack and all points in between. You’re also likely to see Democrats challenging the results which, in light of Murphy’s “January 6th” messaging would be nothing short of extremely ironic.
If Jack comes up short? Republicans (and some Democrats who don’t love Phil Murphy) are hoping for a 1997 result… Whitman was reelected but by a painfully close margin that essentially turned her into a lame duck before inauguration.
I believe either scenario is entirely possible for a host of reasons.
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