If you rely solely on the generic ballot polls and Media interpretations of the tea leaves? The 2022 midterms look and feel like a jump ball, Save Jerseyans.
But while no one *knows* what’s going to happen next month, there is still ample reason to believe that a “red wave” continues to build off of the U.S. coastline. A combination of district math, environmental factors, and the weight of history are conspiring to make a healthy double-digit GOP house gain and yes, a Senate takeover far more likely than not.
Some thoughts for your consideration:
#1 – Mathematics!
This part is straightforward. If you go by the official RCP breakdown, there are only 16 seats out of 212 currently held by Republicans that are considered either a toss-up or “leaning” one way or the other. Conversely, Democrats find themselves defending 54 seats out of 220 (nearly 25%) that are either lean or toss-up. The GOP only needs a net of 5 seats to flip the chamber and take control. To make matters worse for Team Donkey, the state-by-state redistricting war probably netted the GOP a few seats based solely on the new lines. Democrats would therefore pretty much need to run the board, something that’s extremely rare for the president’s party to do in a midterm cycle. Math… it’s a brutal mistress if you’re on the wrong side of the numbers.
#2 – It’s (Probably) the Economy, Stupid.
The mid-summer Dobbs decision reignited an ongoing debate concerning whether Election 2022 would be a true culture war or, to borrow the Raging Cajun’s famous observation, a return to “it’s the economy, stupid.” Unfortunately for American consumers, inflation and now, thanks to OPEC and a perfect storm of other variables, the country’s economic fortunes once again appear to be darkening. Gas is rising. Food prices are already sky high. Americans are turning on their heat to combat the autumn chill and will soon see insanely high energy bills arrive in their mailboxes/inboxes. Unfortunately for Democrats, the recent polling unanimously concludes that economic and “kitchen table” concerns like inflation significantly outpace abortion, “climate change,” and other issues which are much better for Joe Biden’s party among voters. Inflation has been particularly brutal on seniors with fixed incomes, a traditionally GOP-friendly group who became less reliable during Covid-19.
The difference between a wave (20-30 seats) and a 1994-style tsnuami, however, is what gives Democrats hope in states like New Jersey: even in this environment, there is a decent percentage of relatively affluent suburban voters who are okay (or even happy) to pay a premimum for their woke values. ‘How many’ will likely decide the height of the coming wave.
#3 – Crime and Education.
Back in 2020? BLM was on the march and Democrats enjoyed a decades-long advantage on the issue of education. 2021 saw, I think, the pendulum begin to swing back in the other direction. Voters in blue Jersey and, to a far greater extent, the Commonwealth of Virginia rebelled. As it turns out, most Americans don’t like what they’re seeing from social justice urban district attorneys and are deeply concerned about crime generally. If I’m Dr. Oz? I’m talking about nothing but Fetterman’s insane social justice positions and the daily carnage report out of Philly. Kari Lake, the MAGA Republican leading Arizona’s gubernatorial contest, is focusing on the related problem of homelessness this week. Not something you see from the GOP on a regular basis, right? What’s more, parents (and especially moms) don’t believe a school administrator or school board should decide whether their child is allowed to share his or her new pronouns with mom and dad. Republicans engaging these emotionally-impactful issues – and doing it well – will peel off key support from the suburban/yuppie vote bloc (see #2 above) this November.
#4 – Gubernatorial coattails?
The House is gone; the only question is the size of the new GOP majority. The real question is whether the Senate flips, but even here the GOP can find some reason for optimism notwithstanding some (how can we put this nicely?) “challenging” nominees. Gubernatorial coattails. Ticket splitting is allegedly back this year, an PA could prove a notable example of it, but the Americanselectorate’s polarization has made jumping back-and-forth between columns a rarer phenomenon. With that being said, Republicans are well ahead in key gubernatorial races in states also hosting swing Senate contests (FL, OH, GA) and pulling ahead in other key dual battleground states (NV, AZ, WI). Sure, Mike DeWine could theoretically win and J.D. Vance could fall short, but I don’t think that’s likely. That’s not how it usually works.
#5 – Joe Biden.
There’s no escaping the fact that midterm cycles are usually poor-to-very poor events for the incumbent president’s party. Barack Obama’s job approval rating was a few points POSITIVE in polling averages on Election Day 2010, the “Tea Party Revolution” which swept Congressional Democrats out to sea. Joe Biden is currently better positioned than he’s been at any time since last winter, but he’s still 10-points under water on average. A rare exception to the rule: 2002, but America was still grappling with the aftermath of 9/11 and rallying around the president’s call to war. Some voters (we’re not sure how many) WILL vote their opinion of Uncle Joe, and those voters are unlikely to reward him for his first two years of nearly endless crisis and anxiety-inducing leadership failures.
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MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com’s founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and host of ‘The Matt Rooney Show’ on 1210 WPHT every Sunday from 8-10PM EST.
