Jon Bramnick (R-21) is officially in the 2025 gubernatorial contest, Save Jerseyans. The state senator and serial Trump hater launched his campaign on Saturday and showcased endorsements videos from the likes of John Boehner and J.P. Bush. Does he think it’s 2014?
Or is he trying to piss off base Republicans? Yes, but also no. The Union County-based amateur comedian and Nikki Haley don’t have much in common at the superficial level, Save Jerseyans. One is a fairly conservative female ex-governor of a Southern state. The other is a self-styled “moderate” or centrist male legislator from the New York City metro area. But there is an important commonality worth noting if you’re a GOP primary voter:
Both want to reestablish country club liberals’ hold on the Republican Party, the same crew that was losing in the Garden State long before Donald Trump rode down the escalator. The argument advanced by both campaigns is consequently eerily similar; paraphrasing, “we need to nominate Republicans who can appeal to non-Republicans.” Republicans who attempt to govern by winning the argument are the problem, they reason. Winning elections is all they care about, for without winning, the gravy train stops for both themselves and their backers.
They don’t think they need “MAGA” or anyone who’d rather see the GOP evolve in a conservative populist direction. YOU, they believe, are what’s holding us back. Not the Left. Not weak-kneed and/or corrupt sellouts. You, and me, and the people who pay the taxes, follow the rules, and want REAL change for… well, a change!
Newsflash: in case it wasn’t obvious enough from my tone, both campaigns are peddling a bad premise.
Consider the presidential contest where Donald Trump is currently out-pacing Haley by a statistically significant 3-points in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups with Joe Biden per the usually reliable RCP average. The reason is simple: most of the “independents” (Democrat voters in name only) who crossed over to support Haley in New Hampshire won’t show up for her in the general, while Trump’s bold colors approach to campaigns motivates a much larger and broader percentage of the Republican coalition. Did Mitt Romney or John McCain put Michigan or Pennsylvania in play?
Back here at home, Bramnick’s insistence that moderation is the best method for turning things around for NJGOP’ers is easily disprovable with a cursory look at state political history. I can supply you with a long list of Rockefeller Republicans (Zimmer, Kyrillos, Forrester, Guadagno, etc.) who’ve already run the sort of campaign which Bramnick, a close ally of Phil Murphy, now intends to pass off as something new, novel, and workable. They’ve all failed, because “Democrat Lite” succeeds only is tarnishing the GOP brand for those who would be motivated by a well-delivered, unapologetically Republican message; as for Leftists, they’d rather have the genuine article (Democrats) than something diluted. Those Haley voters referenced above who still fell far short of making a dent in New Hampshire are voting for Joe Biden in November regardless of how accommodating the GOP nominee attempted to be.
By the way: I’m giving credit to Bramnick for being a bit more honest than Haley because his disdain for the base is out there in the open. Haley is a more slippery and evasive, but the end result is probably the same.
I don’t expect Bramnick 2025 to succeed. It could be a vanity project, but I also wonder whether something else is afoot here. For example, is the real goal of this candidacy to bolster – or hinder – someone else with a better shot at the nomination? Stay tuned.
What I do know: the vast majority of Republican voters, including here in New Jersey, are tired of settling for a Washington Generals approach to elections. We want to beat the damn Globetrotters as opposed to celebrating how well we followed the script in losing as intended. The Senator joined my radio program last summer and wasn’t able to explain how what’s failed before will work this time around. I’m open to hearing an answer because I’m a fair guy, but I think the odds of hearing won are down there with Nikki Haley’s chances of carrying South Carolina next month.
