What a night! Today actually marks my first day of my last semester of law school, and instead of getting a good night sleep and making sure I wake up for my complex civil litigation class, I am sitting up at 1:30 AM still waiting for the final tally to come in between Romney and Santorum. I am hoping the numbers come in before I finish this post.
I have not looked back to the beginning of the Iowa Caucus system, but I am willing to go out on a limb here and say that last nights vote was the tightest 1 and 2 finish in the state’s history.
Rick Santorum
The clear winner of the night (at least from a moral victory standpoint since he officially lost by 14 votes around 2:00AM) was Rick Santorum, a former Senator that I am not afraid to say that I am not a fan of. But that aside, his finish was astounding and yet explainable. The optimistic mass media message will be that Santorum came from polling at 4% in Iowa just two weeks ago to tying the national frontrunner in the final days. That he visited all 99 counties and basically lived in Iowa for the last 6 months. That Santorum played the retail politics game exclusively, with no real money to speak of and no Super PAC, and showed that it could be done, Romney could be beaten. My reaction?
Meh.
Look I don’t want to say that it is not great for the Santorum campaign, but lets be honest with ourselves. If Newt Gingrich did not take a bath in negative advertising over the last two weeks, he would be on the exact same pedestal where Santorum finds himself today. But just like Bachmann, Perry, and Cain, Gingrich peaked a bit too early for his own good. No one ever had a chance to seriously vet Santorum (outside of Pennsylvania where he lost by an insane margin in 2006) because quite honestly, no one cared to. The guy, while intelligent and well spoken, is hardly electable and in my opinion is no match for the Obama Machine. Santorum was simply the last man on the list of “Not-Romney” candidates. Nothing more and nothing less.
The pundits will need something to talk about, and they will tout the enormous amount of cash that is about to flow Rick’s way, but it may actually be too late. Santorum does not have nearly the war chest of anyone else in the race, and by the time he gets the cash, the air time in New Hampshire will be taken up by Gingrich, who intends to battle for his political life, and Romney, who already has a lock on television in the granite state.
Remember Save Jerseyans, Bill Clinton took 2% of the vote in Iowa in 1992. While Santorum should enjoy his victory tonight and fight on for the causes he believes in, he should remember that Iowa rarely picks Presidents, they pick corn.
Santorum is the featured guest on O’Reilly tonight, it should be an interesting interview to say the least.
Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich
Rick Perry surprised me by bowing out and retreating to Texas, but honestly he is making the right decision. Before his campaign ends up in tremendous debt due to a fundraising pool that would no doubt evaporate after tonight, he can now bow out gracefully without taking another embarrassing loss. Perry, like the other “Not-Romney’s,” peaked too early and could not deliver when the spotlight was locked.
Well, Gingrich now stands to benefit, which is kind of funny, considering most of Gingrich’s staff quit this summer to join the Perry campaign. Expect the bulk of Perry’s support to head for Newt in the coming days. This will be a boon to Newt in New Hampshire where he could realistically take second place if he plays the game properly. One thing Perry had that Newt does not is money. If the funding comes along with the support, it could breathe new life into the Gingrich campaign.
Newt’s speech tonight seemed rather bitter. The image is not becoming. We all can understand that he is disappointed after declaring three weeks ago that he would be the party’s nominee, but the wise Uncle image is what has worked for Newt all along, not the crotchety old man image.
One final note on Newt: even if he received every single vote that went to Perry, he still would have came in 4th place following Ron Paul.
Michele Bachmann
Ha!
Mitt Romney and Chris Christie
Romney obviously had a strong showing. Four years ago Mitt had a full-time, paid staff in Iowa of over fifty people and he collected around 30,000 votes. This time around, Romney had five staffers working Iowa and still managed to collect around 30,000 votes. Sure maybe he should have gone up, but the amount of time spent in the state should have told everyone that was not going to happen. Romney has been stuck at 25% for months now, and guess what, he won the caucus with a little over 25%. Iowa was never the goal for the Romney campaign, coming in anything above third place was a bonus, winning it was like hitting the lottery for $12.00. It basically means nothing to Mitt other than not hurting him in any significant way. New Hampshire is and has been the event.
As Ron Paul kept creeping upward, Romney brought he big guns into Iowa to ensure at least a respectable finish. It worked. Just a few days after Governor Christie’s headline making visit to Iowa, Romney has won the state. While at the time it was made I was of the opinion that Christie’s endorsement was too early to be meaningful, his continued vocal support of the more timid candidate is significant, and it will continue to help everywhere that Christie stumps. Think about it, our governor had Iowa corn famers voting for a pragmatic businessman and politician from Massachusetts. Let that sink in. Sure he may have only won by 14 votes, but its still a win, and one that few were actually projecting (myself included).
The one negative thing I will say about Romney was that his speech was awful. Reports are that a teleprompter was set up for Romney to speak from, but that it was taken down at the last minute so that he could give his speech off the cuff. It showed.
The speech was an adaptation of his usual stump speech. It attacked Obama on his Iran policy and performance in the economy. If you listened to the audio and have been living under a rock for the last week, you would never have know that it came from the mouth of the candidate who had just won the Iowa Caucus. Clearly the speech prepared for the teleprompter was scrapped, not because the content was poor or because it was no longer relevant, but because Romney did not want to be criticized for using the teleprompter for two reasons:
- Rick Santorum made a point to say that he never speaks from notes.
- Teleprompters are for President Obama.
Romney better work on his speech for New Hampshire if he does not want to be called out for it and embarrassed again. At least he already knows that the speech he gives next Tuesday will be one of certain victory. A week is enough time to memorize it, right Mitt?
Ron Paul
Twenty days ago I actually picked Ron Paul to win the caucuses. Obviously I was wrong, but the significance of his third place finish cannot be ignored. Paul has a solid contingency that seems unshakable. Reports were that he won independents declaring as Republicans eight to one. He also took a large portion from voters who claimed they wanted to select a “true conservative.” Ironically enough, he did poorly among those who consider themselves “very conservative.” I will leave it to you to determine what that means.
Paul’s supporters should not be dismissed or disparaged. I am of the opinion the we need them come
November and will continue to need them in the future. While I do not think that Ron Paul’s foreign policy stances will become the norm in the Republican Party, I do feel that the ideological base is turning from neo-conservative tendencies to something a bit more traditional. While the GOP will likely never be the isolationist party, it may move away from the “world police” stance that is stereotypically strapped to it. We should certainly continue to defend our interests and position in the world, and use our might to do so, but the nation building just seems to be a cost that many conservatives, especially younger conservatives, are unwilling to bear any longer. Paul’s jump in support highlights that shift. Will he be the nominee? No, and thank goodness, not with Iran on the cusp of obtaining a nuclear weapon. But will he remain significant and drive the economic trends on the right? You bet.
The End of the Beginning
So that’s it. As of 2:24AM there are 99% reporting in Iowa and Mitt Romney has won the state by 8 votes over Rick Santorum. Onward to New Hampshire.
