By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog
There are two ways to interpret today’s new Quinnipiac Poll results for the New Jersey U.S. Senate race, Save Jerseyans.
Cory Booker (D-Twitter) campaign manager Brendan Gill tells PolitickerNJ that a 51% to 40% lead over Republican Jeff Bell is a good thing for his guy. And he’s not wrong. 50% is a good place for an incumbent to be just a few weeks out.
Jeff Bell and his long-time friend, Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard, see things a little differently. And they make some interesting points, ones which verify much of what we’ve been telling you for awhile.
But is it a different without a distinction?
Kristol says the key to today’s polling news is that “[a]mong those whose mind is made up, Booker leads Bell 39 to 34 percent.”
“So Booker’s hard lead over Bell is a mere 5 points. He’ll outspend Bell over the next month. But money can’t buy you love. Sometimes, it can’t even buy you votes. If New Jersey flips in November, we’ll remember this Quinnipiac poll as Jeff Bell’s fire bell in the night.”
Money can’t always buy you love, fair enough, but it usually does. The Booker campaign is flush with cash and it’s reportedly about to launch the freshman Democrat’s first major television buy. Jeff Bell can’t afford anything like it. Which one would you date? That’s how most people vote.
I’d be a lot more excited right now if it was September 2nd, not October 2nd, and both NRSC and independent expenditure ads were running in the Garden State. But they’re not, a fact of which Bell is acutely aware.
“I’m not getting any help from the Republican establishment in D.C.,” the former Reagan staffer relayed to supporters in a Thursday morning fundraising email citing Kristol’s analysis, “so I need friends like you to make up the difference.”
Bell’s best last hope is a massive “wave” – which venerable political prognosticator Michael Barone is now projecting – that not only helps tighten up his race with Booker independent of external variables BUT one which also allows national groups (like the NRSC) to take a fresh look at the national map and consider last-minute investments in “reach” opportunities.
Yet while Barack Obama’s approval rating continues to fall (and fall) in New Jersey, there’s still no indication it’s having any down-ballot impact in New Jersey federal races.
When your opponent polls at over 50% and you claim to see some hope, you’re at best, a cockeyed optimist and at worst, completely delusional.
Jeff Bell, who??? I live at the Jersey shore and have not heard ONE WORD about this man and his campaign. How sad!
Takes money and he doesn’t have any.
Anything you do, don’t vote for anyone in the Democratic column.
His ads don’t do anything to inspire us to go vote. Stinks, I think a republican could win NJ, but he has to get a message out that makes someone come out. Unfortunately,you would think the poor state of things would do that, but most are illiterate when it comes to politics.