Brace yourselves for what’s likely to be one of the most interesting elections of our lives, Save Jerseyans. Almost every indicator points to a solid-to-spectacular GOP night, and some of the hottest contests are in “blue” jurisdictions this time around… including New Jersey.
Where and what I’m watching on Election Night?
Keep in mind: the absurd nature of our current elections system is that the counting will continue for days and, in some cases, weeks. You may see an initial dramatic lead for one candidate or anything when the polls close which doesn’t seem to align with what you’re expecting, but you don’t necessarily know what’s being counted so remain patient. Of course, I can’t list every township, city and borough on my sheet or we’d be here until Christmas! There are a few places, however, which should tell most of the story of this extraordinary year.
A partial list:
- NJ-07: Tom Kean Jr. (R) is favored to unseat Tom Malinowski (D). I don’t think the final result is truly in doubt at this point; Malinowski is running into too many headwinds including a full-blown ethics scandals and a redder district post-redistricting. What we’re truly watching for here is “what sort of night” is in store for us all over the map. Watch the timeline. If Kean is declared the winner by 10-11 p.m.? Likely a very big wave. If we’re still counting and waiting a week from now? Republicans likely took the House but it’s a much smaller “wave” than the indicators portended.
- NJ-03: Kean will win in NJ-07. If Bob Healey (R) takes out Andy Kim (D) in this redrawn South-Central Jersey district? The GOP could push the 250-seat mark nationally. Healey probably spent the money he needs to win; it’s truly just a question of whether the “red tide” rises high enough to swamp the incumbent. Keep this in mind: most of the reason why this district is brutal is Burlington County which went from purple to blue during the Trump years. Poll after poll this cycle suggests suburban women, angry over inflation and school-related controversies among other issues, are inching back in the GOP’s direction. If it happens in reality? This may be one of the places it’s evident.
- NJ-05/Bergen County: Republicans are optimistic in Bergen County for the first time in a decade after a strong Ciattarelli showing in 2021 and a recent widely-rumored internal Democrat poll showing Team Donkey down by a point. If Bergen tips and the GOP nabs some commissioner seats (or even the county executive?), then Frank Pallotta (R) may do well enough in NJ-05’s eastern reaches to upset the $14 million man, three-term incumbent Josh Gottheimer (D).
- NJ-06, 9, 11: It would take a truly massive ’94-sized red wave to flip these seats, but at the very least, the margins may be very interesting. For example, Bill Pascrell (D, NJ-09) saw his district stay blue but get nevertheless measurably redder in redistricting through the inclusion of some Republican territory (like the northern part of Wayne). Wouldn’t it be fun if we don’t know who won the 9th on Election Night? I don’t think that’s impossible.
- NJ-01/Gloucester County: Former Senate President Steve Sweeney got thrown out of office last year by “Ed the Trucker.” In the aftermath, Sweeney retreated to his stronghold (Gloucester) where Dems lost the sheriff’s office and two commissioner seats but still maintain control (of the patronage pit in Woodbury in addition to the formal levers of power). That could change in just a few hours if Republicans take control of the board and, in so doing, supplant the aging ironworker and Norcross top lieutenant with Jacci Vigilante who would become the only female “boss” (h/t David Wildstein) in N.J. county politics. Claire Gustafson (R) is likely to fall short in her quest to unseat Donald Norcross (D) because NJ-01 takes in far more of blue Camden than purple-trending-red Gloucester, but it’s very possible that we could see Gustafson win the Glouco portions and produce the tightest race we’ve seen in NJ-01 since Jim Florio toppled John Hunt post-Watergate. Ultimately, these two races stand alone as the ones most likely to impact STATE politics, in 2023 and beyond, more so than the marquee federal race (NJ-07, NJ-03, etc) getting most of the attention from the legacy media.
- Cumberland County: Home of State Senator Mike Testa Jr. (whose 2019 win kicked off the South Jersey realignment), this former Democrat stronghold is now purple and poised to flip to the GOP. Here’s one sign of the time: Barack Obama carried Cumberland with 61.59% of the vote in 2012; eight years later, Joe Biden managed only 52.32% despite winning approximately the same percentage of the vote as Obama (1-point shy) did in his reelect cycle. Gloucester is rightly getting a ton of attention since it’s more populous and home to Sweeney, but Cumberland flipping is an equally big deal particularly because it could tell us something about whether the Hispanic shift to Republicans is real.
