With two nights of post-final debate polling in the can, Save Jerseyans, we still haven’t see a bounce for the President despite the best attempts of some to portray his performance as a “points” victory. Mitt Romney led by 0.9 in the RCP average before the debate, and he’s up by 0.9 today.
I told you “points” victories are less important than perception/expectation considerations and, thus far anyway, I’ve been proven correct.
Don’t act so surprised!
You also shouldn’t be surprised that Governor Romney continues to improve quicker than President Obama’s polling position is deteriorating…
Of the 4 national public polls released today (with polling sample periods through yesterday, 10/14/12), Romney hits the magic 50% in 3 of 4. Obama reaches only 47% in the one poll showing him ahead; that’s a dangerously low place for an incumbent to be 12-days out. Moreover, of the last 10 national public polls, Romney leads in 6 (with a 2.83-point average), Obama is ahead in 3 (with an average lead of 2.33-points), and in one poll they’re completely tied. Obama cracked 48% in just one survey.
What’s happening? A lot. For starters, Mitt Romney has virtually erased the gender gap (a development reflected in a new AP poll with interviews through 10/23/12).
So don’t get bummed out by Democrat/MSM/MSNBC spin regarding the Electoral College, folks. Polling is still trending decisively in Mitt’s direction. Unskewed polling averages (utilizing hybrid ’08/’04 turnout models instead of unrealistic ’08 once-in-a-generation-pro-Democrat models) show Mitt with comfortably more than the 270 required to win; Ohio in particular is better than it looks, and NRO has a great article explaining why today (hint: skewed poll analysis). I’m going to carefully watch the results and continue to consult with people in-the-know through the weekend, but I wouldn’t be shocked if more progress for Governor Romney is reflected in our next Save Jersey Electoral College Projection.
Have I ever misled you?