Speaker John Boehner is getting a lot of heat from his Right at the moment, Save Jerseyans.
And I’m going to catch some hell from many of you for saying what I’m about to say:
I feel bad for Boehner. I really, truly do.
Imagine for a moment that you’re a good family man, businessman, and pillar of the local community from a humble background. You eventually decide to run for Congress in a primary against an incumbent accused of gross moral failings (allegedly paying a teenage prostitute) and, having won that primary, rise through the ranks of the House through skill and strength of character. Your efforts eventually help catalyze a “Republican Revolution” in 2010 and, even when your party blows the presidential race AND several winnable senate contests in 2012, your House majority remains largely undisturbed.
Most folks would call that a job well done.
Like it or not, Speaker Boehner is fighting a battle that we lost when polls closed on November 6th.
So why is John Boehner being treated like a failure?
Well, for starters, he’s the last national GOP leader left standing. Someone’s to blame for ’12, right? And Mitt Romney’s long-gone; average members of the Republican base don’t know any of his advisers or their campaign operatives by name, so they couldn’t blame’em if they wanted to do it. There’s no GOP majority in the U.S. Senate and, thanks to 2012, may not be for at least a few cycles. All they can do is try to stop bad legislation… a much lower bar than the one set for Boehner.
The laws of civics (like physics) still apply post-November. It’s important to remember Boehner only holds sway over 1/2 of 1/3 of the federal government. The establishment Romney campaign failed. The Tea Party-backed Senate candidates failed. He’s left to negotiate with a reckless, hyper-political President who sends out fundraising emails invoking Newtown, CT and, back in D.C., is demanding economy-crippling tax hikes, with no spending cuts any time soon, all despite the fact that this President’s numbers don’t come close to adding up without HUGE immediate spending reductions and entitlement reforms.
Boehner’s choices? If we “go over” the fiscal cliff, Boehner knows the ABC/NBC/CBS/print media establishment will blame his party, and only his party, when taxes go up across the board (by thousands of dollars for the median New Jersey tax filing). Alternatively, if Boehner agrees to a compromise settlement, he knows the Republican base could fracture heading into 2014 and 2016. Oh, and by the way, taxes are still going up under that scenario, too… it’s just a question of who/when/where/how. The “why” is answered by looking at November’s election returns.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t, and a MSM that will blame you no matter what happens.
Having considered this thorny predicament at great length, I’ve said we should let the President own the “Taxmageddon” that his party has wrought. Plenty of others share my thinking. Boehner may have a different approach with some logic behind it. When he says that he wants to “protect as many taxpayers as possible,” I take him at his word.
We know millionaire taxes don’t work from our own experience here in New Jersey. We also know most true millionaires vote Democratic, and when the millionaire tax either (1) doesn’t work and necessitates a second “cliff” or (2) is rejected by the White House altogether and no other deal is reached (as now appears to be the case), Boehner may believe his caucus is in a better rhetorical position to blame the President for the tax crisis. After all, a millionaire-only tax was originally backed by Nancy Pelosi! He tried. The White House wouldn’t settle for soaking the rich. They also wanted to near-rich and small businessmen to take a swim.
It’s a big topic and, undoubtedly, one which we could spend hours of digital ink discussing.
My primary point is that John Boehner finds himself in an extremely unenviable position negotiating with a President who won’t accept any detour from the fiscal cliff other than one that (1) makes Republicans look bad for backing “the rich” or (2) forces the GOP to accept tax increases and, along with them, a potential intraparty war.
Anyone who claims to know with 100% certainty which of Boehner’s limited options is best for our cause is, with all due respect, full of crap. This is a rough situation. He has my sympathy. Whether he has my support in the future will depend not just on what happens between now and January 1st (’cause we know there’s no happy ending here), but how his caucus handles the political aftermath… if it’s as poorly as Republicans handled the ’08 financial crisis, then it will be time for a change.
Well done
What would happen if the Republicans simply got up, walked out, and said "it's all yours, Democrats"?