By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog
Can anyone say they know exactly where the NJ-03 race stands? At this moment?
It’s an open question, Save Jerseyans, especially since we’ve only seen one general election cycle public poll released. That Stockton poll showed a tie, 42% to 42%. The only other polls released are internal: a DCCC poll from on October 1st showing Aimee Belgard up by one (43% to 42%) and, today, Adam Geller (Christie’s pollster) released a polling memo reporting Tom MacArthur leading by 7-points.
What we know? (1) This is likely a single-digit race, and (2) slanderous DCCC advertising + the reality of an open seat have somewhat evened the odds for Belgard in a district, and a cycle, that otherwise favor Republicans ever so slightly.
But keep these two big variables in mind, too, when attempting to handicap the NJ-03 contest…
Roll Call didn’t post the actual DCCC memo, but I can’t find any verification of what they use in terms of the polling sample’s partisan composition. I do suspect it’s nowhere close to the 35% Republican, 36% Democrat and 29% Independent composition of Adam Geller’s survey. We do know it’s an auto poll; Geller uses live interviewers.
Secondly, for a little perspective, keep in mind that NJ-03 is a lean-R district, not a strong R district. Jon Runyan won by only 3-points (2010) and 9-points (2012), respectively. Geller nailed the primary results.
If he’s right again, then MacArthur is running well-ahead of the former Philadelphia Eagle’s 2010 margin. No small feat…
“While the overall political environment has shifted in the Republicans’ favor, this district requires two things in order for Republicans to succeed: An environment that is not lousy for the GOP (think 2008) and a strong candidate with a good message,” Geller concluded. “We have both of these lined up and should continue to prosecute a compelling narrative in favor of Tom MacArthur and against Aimee Belgard.”‘
I strongly suspect that the DCCC/Belgard peaked in September.
The DCCC naturally isn’t convinced. Or they are running out of places to put their money. Likely some combination of the two.
They no longer enjoy “air superiority” like they did over the summer (MacArthur is spending a 6-figure sum on a weekly basis from here on out), but the Democrat Party’s congressional campaign apparatus doubled-down on their insurance-themed attacks on MacArthur on Monday in a new TV spot. Everything the DCCC has said about MacArthur’s career to date eventually turns out to be bunk, Save Jerseyans, but as Churchill famously said, a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on:
Your best reasons for voting third party in the Third District are
the two POOR CHOICES placed before you on November 4th by the so-called
MAJOR parties.
Think about this….IN District three, your
choices are Tom and Aimee, who have spent literally MILLIONS sniping at
each other while scrambling to raise more money to flood your mailboxes
and your television and radio with negative ads…
OR
You
could vote for Frederick LaVergne, the independent who has been
criss-crossing the District, and the STATE, fighting for you like he
already had the job –
Demanding debates in each race, to insure
that the voters know where each candidate stands – real answers on real
issues, not exclusive “pillow fights”.
Participating in the
discourse on Fisheries Management and in the fight to prevent the
gutting of Pinelands protections by the Christie/Norcross/Gilmore
machines
Fighting corruption town by town – exposing fraud and nepotism and Patronage
Standing up for Constitutional rights of townspeople bullied by their own elected officials
Promoting cost-cutting measures in State, County, and Local government – just like he will in Washington
LISTENING to the constituents, rather than spouting talking points and labels.
Researching the illegal acts of past officials to determine patterns of
lawlessness that may be identified in present administrations
Fighting for equal ballot access FOR HIS OPPONENTS
Organizing the Independent Candidates and Unaffiliated voters to give them their voice in Congress.
EXPOSING FRAUD, including STOLEN VALOR, among elected party machine officials.
Disproving false claims of his opponents about each other, and about their own records.
Do you want a congressman who has changed his church three times in as
many years to pander to different constituencies, or who takes credit
for the financial acumen of others, or their charitable works?
(Charity, done publicly, is ADVERTISING) A “Yes” vote for whatever the
bosses tell him to do? How is he going to “fight Nancy Pelosi”, as he
puts it, if he hasn’t the courage to stand up to ME? COWARD.
Do
you want a congresswoman who’s only job is to hold the seat so her
puppet-master can control one more decision-maker? A candidate selected
to gracefully lose…a “throw-away” in the crooked detente between
Norcross and Gilmore, the Democrat and Republican Machine Puppet
masters? (as is Garry Cobb?). Who ACTUALLY TURNED HER BACK ON THE
VETERANS IN WILLINGBORO rather than face me in debate? COWARD.
OR…
Do you want someone who has YOUR INTERESTS as his agenda?
THIS IS ADULT SWIM, folks. Kiddies, out of the pool!
I’ve been called many things in my life – some truthfully, many, less so.
COWARD is not among them.
“Stand for what’s right, or settle for what’s left” – FJL
The clerks have violated the law…
They’re trying to bury us on the ballot, and I have been illegally
separated from the other candidates in our party organization.
We’re already in court. There are also some shenanigans going on with unrequested mail-in ballots being sent out.
I suspect that they are not showing enough of Ocean County’s Republican strength, and thus feel it will go for MacArthur, probably by 3-4 points.
This is a comment board, not a free advertisement board. First and final heads up!
You’re probably right that the margin hinges on enthusiasm in Ocean County. Whether the poll over-or under-states what’s happen there? Not sure.
I’ll set the over/under on a MacArthur win at six points.
54% MacArthur 45% Belgard 1% for the 3rd party candidate
Lonegan won this district by 15% against a popular Dem Mcarthur should be way ahead in this environment. I guess that is what happens when the establishment makes the pick and pushes out conservatives.