By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog
Look: I have no doubt that Governor Chris Christie‘s popularity is in the toilet right now because I’ve seen it and heard it, Save Jerseyans. Firsthand.
All the same, I’m reluctant to spend too much time on the latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll results, showing 54% of New Jersey voters wanting him to resign, because Eagleton’s track record is abysmal. I’m not trying to be mean, and it’s definitely not personal. Seriously.
We’ve been over this before. In 2013, they misjudged Chris Christie’s margin of victory by 14-points, making Eagleton the least accurate of the major public pollsters covering that race and forcing the institute to admit, in a rare pollster mea culpa, how “…there is small comfort in getting the winners right, but it is very small.” Eagleton also doubled Cory Booker’s actual margin of victory in October 2013 and, in 2009, predicted a Corzine victory. In fact, the final ’09 survey showed Jon Corzine (39%) leading Chris Christie (36%) by 3-points and pulling away based on an alleged polling surge by “independent” Chris Daggett (20%).
Oops; Christie won with 48.5% of the vote to Corzine’s 44.9%… and only 5.8% for Daggett.
So until Eagleton’s poll gets a big one right, folks, we need to treat’em with a higher-than-normal degree of caution.
With that out of the way, the most interesting finding have little to do with the Big Guy.
Eagleton reports that roughly half of polled voters think Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno is ready to take on Chris Christie’s job; a paltry 15% disagree. Her name recognition is still low but hey, that’s correctable (with enough time and cash). It’s also to be expected with so many years dwelling in the shade of a giant oak tree. The key for her? After years of insider questions concerning her quotient of “gravitas,” her high-mileage efforts on the statewide political circuit while the Governor is off running for president are paying dividends. Put another way, she still has the opportunity to define herself.
The challenge, of course, will be preventing Democrats from defining her as Christie-flunky should she win the nomination. Super PAC smears speak louder than U.S. Attorney letters. No poll can tell us how that’ll play out until, or if, the formal campaign begins. Stay tuned…
We could do worse. Much, much worse.
It’s Rutgers-Eagleton. I’ll believe it when Quinnipiac or Monmouth come to the same result. Not saying they won’t, it’s practically a PPP poll.
The challenge is that if he goes too soon the Guadagno ” succession” will be short lived because a special election will be forced. Check the lovely LG statute the Dems authored.
As I calculate it, he can’t go until the day after the 2016 general, or Mid August 2016 the earliest ( as far as an announcement).
Is the succession of the LG to Gov subject to a special election or does the LG fill out the term as with a VP in the federal system?
As if Jerseyans knew what was good for them politically.
She Can Go Make The Donuts Too At Christie Cremes …..
Don’t know enough about her. Besides, changing governors won’t change anything. Change the legislature.
Oh pls not her
Oh pls not her
No one could be worst that Christie — I say give her a shot.