Republicans (myself included) and hoped for more, Save Jerseyans, but the “red wave” ended up being a split decision of sorts across the country on Tuesday. New Jersey was no exception.
Tom Kean Jr., the former State Senate Republican leader and son of the popular ex-governor of the same name, prevailed in his challenge to two-term Democrat incumbent Tom Malinowski (D) in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District. Malinowski ran into two primary and ultimately political fatal obstacles in his quest for a third term: (1) The redrawn district is redder than the old one (e.g. the new NJ-07 picked up 24 towns which combined to give Trump 12,000 net votes in 2020, and Kean only lost by 4,000 last time around), and (2) A nagging and ongoing STOCK Act violation which undercut the incumbent’s efforts to role-play as an innocent policy wonk. All of it proved too much to overcome for the ex-Obama State Department aid.
Kean’s win is the first GOP pick up in New Jersey since 2010, but he’ll be the sole member of the freshman class from New Jersey. The corrupt map crafted by former N.J. Supreme Court Justice John Wallace and Princeton’s Sam Wang did what it was designed to do… insulate a Democrat majority. No other Republican challenger came close to an upset.
We weren’t alone. Nationally, the GOP is still on track to win the House but by a far smaller margin than hoped. The Senate appears destined to remain in Democrat hands until at least 2024 when the battlegrounds will move to redder territory like Montana and West Virginia.
Meanwhile, down in Cumberland County, Mike Testa’s county slate took control of the formerly deep blue Democrat outpost. The victories of Douglas Albrecht and Victoria “Tori” Groetsch-Lods take the board to 4-3 where it will stay until at least 2024.
Other than some notable local wins? That was all the GOP had to show for a midterm cycle that should’ve been a rebuke to the disastrous Biden agenda.
Where did things go off the rails? There’s a lot to unpack, Save Jerseyans, but the answer is likely multi-faceted. Candidate selection is a factor. Another: Republicans’ stubborn refusal to embrace early voting/VBM which allows Democrats to bank low propensity voters before Election Day (which is how the Gloucester Dems held on). On the House side, overcoming that terrible new map likely would’ve required a large wave which never materialized.
Maybe things just aren’t bad enough yet? Crime is rising, but it’s only beginning to penetrate the burbs. Inflation is nuts but the job market hasn’t collapsed as of yet. No sane person wants those things to happen, but Republicans (again, myself included) had hoped our fellow Americans would act before a disaster was already unavoidable. Sadly, that’s not how human nature works.
You know we’ll spend most of the rest of the year (and beyond) digging into what happened. For now, New Jersey Republicans will look ahead to 2023 and the battle for the state legislature.
