Predicting CD3: Who Wins? By What?

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

MacArthur and Lonegan debate on WPHT Radio
MacArthur and Lonegan debate on WPHT Radio

I don’t think this post requires an explanation, right?

CD3 is the only truly “competitive” primary on the GOP house side of the ledger this cycle, and for the record, I’m placing the word ‘competitive’ in quotes because I’m not sure whether the final margin will seem competitive on its face when the votes are tallied on Tuesday evening. Available polling suggests that Tom MacArthur is headed for a low-double digit victory over Steve Lonegan tomorrow night.

That being said, when we’re talking about a low turnout non-presidential primary cycle, Save Jerseyans, it’s hard to guarantee exactly who is will show up. The MacArthur folks are employing the phrase “cautiously optimistic” which, given everything we know, is more than fair.

Your take? Vote and comment below the fold….

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25 thoughts on “Predicting CD3: Who Wins? By What?

  1. On the Lonegan side the passion and the determination of fighting for our Constitution,Liberties , and Freedoms is unmatched. I can not imagine much enthusiasm to rush and vote for the status Quo,Macarthur. Many more are disgusted with NJ establishment politics. Hand picked by the establishment. How could this possibly generate a rush too get and vote, unless they are worried about losing their power and cronies to Lonegan and We the people. .

  2. I’ll go with a bold move here: CD3 residents are so disgusted by both campaigns that they all rise up in protest and refuse to vote. Both candidates are forced to run in the general election as they each receive 2 votes – one from themselves and one from their wives. Aimee Belgard becomes CD3’s newest Congresswoman, Steve Lonegan returns to Bogota, Tom MacArthur goes back to his job as Mr. Clean.

  3. one only has to look at how much money, patriot majority, a liberal pac has spent to influence cd3 gop primary , to know who to vote for . they want to run against steve lonegan because they know they have a way better chance of winning this seat back with, him on the ticket

  4. Mac Arthur bailed out of working for AIG when things got hot, he bailed out of York just in time and he quit before his term was up as mayor. Why would anyone want to vote for somebody who has a record of being a quitter not once or twice but at least three times?

  5. And the establishment sheep baa, Mac Arthur. And We the People say, Steve Lonegan. If the sheep win, so do the wolves.

  6. Another Lonegan lie.

    Tom MacArthur finished his one-year term as Mayor on December 31, 2013.

    How do they think this stuff up?

    As far as selling his successful business after putting in many years–then dedicating his life to public affairs–sounds a lot like Ben Franklin.

    I’m not saying Tom is Ben Franklin–just pointing how Ben was such a successful businessman that he retired from the printing business at an even younger age than Tom, and then dedicated his life to serving his country.

  7. I think it’s going to be a close race. MacMuffin managed to throw a whole lot of money around and ran a relentlessly negative mudslinging campaign, and the fact that this race has become so competitive is proof of the (unfortunate) power of going full-on negative in your campaigning. But at the end of the day, I think there is a major enthusiasm gap between supporters of Lonegan and the MacArthur backers, and I expect Lonegan to eke it out in a close one, 53-47.

  8. And the Philadelphia Inquirer, which is/was owned by George Norcross (who is undeniably in the tank for his hand-picked candidate for Congress, Aimee Belgard), endorsed Tom MacArthur. I think that’s as clear a sign of who the Democratic power brokers want to go up against as any. For what it’s worth, Patriot Majority has attacked both MacArthur (for his tax and spend ways) and Lonegan (for being “too conservative”).

  9. BTW, nobody was more annoyed than I with the many people who told me they could not vote for Romney, but now I understand that the “lesser of two evils” is still evil. Therefore, I would not be able to bring myself to vote for McArthur, but I am only one person. That probably makes no difference to the megalithic oligarchy that is the establishment GOP.

  10. I’m a libertarian. I found Obama & Romney to be way too similar for my liking, and can safely say that I probably disagree with them both on well over half the issues. Romney had no chance with me due to his support for government-run health care, a more robust foreign policy, continuing the failed war on drugs (at the very least, there’s no good reason why marijuana shouldn’t be legalized), keeping the tax code in place, not closing any federal departments, and opposing Federal Reserve transparency. Romney was the last candidate out of that whole group that I wanted to see get the nomination, because I disliked his platform and because I knew he would lose.

  11. Lonegan kicks RINO butt and sends carpetbagging MacMillions back to Rockaway where he came from, less one or two million in his bank account.

  12. Too close to call – normally, I would give the ground game to Lonegan. Without stronger organization in either camp, this is truly a whoresrace.

  13. claire mc caskill d missouri is forever grateful to the purist who had her run against todd akins . certain for defeat, the purist came to her rescue . the most grateful of all is harry reid who has his job today, thanks to all the purist .

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