By Matt Rooney
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Tuesday evening might offer the most anti-climactic primary night in memory, Save Jerseyans, since no one knows how the slow-roll of a mostly mail-in ballot election will play out.
Here’s what I’ll be looking for on Tuesday night and throughout the coming days…
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1. Is mail-in voting (still) a disaster?
The May 2020 all-vote by mail elections were an absolute abortion. Sorry for the strong language but it’s accurate. 1 in 10 ballots cast were rejected. Allegations of fraud and incompetence marred the results and made national headlines. Governor Murphy is projecting confidence that today’s primary will go well; very few share our Knucklehead-in-Chief’s optimism. There’s also ample anecdotal evidence that many voters are tuned out from the primary election either because there’s no contested presidential primary battle or they simply don’t trust the mail-in process… or both. Keep an eye not just on the problems (should they arise, which they invariably will) but also the overall “turnout.”
2. The Left vs. the Far Left
There aren’t any Democrat House incumbents considered in serious peril today, but it’s worth watching how – for example – Josh Gottheimer’s primary opponent Arati Kreibich (a Glen Rock councilwoman) performs in the final count. There are also other challenges from the far Left flnk in district 6, 8, 9, 10 and 12. There are no “moderate” Democrats in high elected office in New Jersey, but some of these primary challengers like Kreibich are even further out in left field – believe it or not! So we’re looking to see if the more traditional liberal flank holds or if the “progressive” Sanders/AOC types continue to gain ground.
3. U.S. Senate GOP Primary
There are five official candidates, but only two – Rikin Mehta and Hirsh Singh – are considered serious contenders. It’s been an ugly campaign for the right to lose to Cory Booker (sorry – just being honest) culminating in Singh getting a ‘cease and desist’ letter from the Attorney General’s office for encouraging voters to cast a second mail-in ballot IF they voted for Mehta and regretted it. Mehta, a pharmacist and attorney, boasts the most institutional support by a long shot; Singh has a few lines in his back pocket including vote-rich Ocean County. Mehta is the weak favorite today given his significant county “line” advantage. Still, no would be surprised if Singh leverages his dirty tactics (again, sorry, just being honest) and residual name recognition from past failed campaigns to eke out a victory.
This is an aspirational battle. Both likely GOP nominees are Indian Americans. Which would/could do more to help the party make inroads with this critical and growing electoral demographic? And by the way: if Singh does upset Mehta today, will the AG’s office prosecute his alleged election law violations? Maybe before November, throwing the GOP column into chaos?
4. NJ-03: Gibbs vs. Richter
Richter is likely the weak favorite in this race. Like Singh in the Senate contest, the ex-construction tycoon boasts the endorsement of Ocean County and the line that comes with it. He’s also personally wealthy and has leveraged his largesse into an air war advantage over the campaign of rival Kate Gibbs. That being said, the scrappy Gibbs has Burlington County (where she previously served as a freeholder), the support of a Bob Hugin-financed Super PAC, the backing of her union ELEC-825, and two veteran operatives (Chris Russell and Angelo Lamberto) who know the mail-in ballot game. This is a toss-up.
High stakes and hyper personal, this race offers a few interesting storylines to watch today including Burlington vs. Ocean (Round #45860) and Russell vs. Bill Stepien (Richter’s GC and #2 on the Trump campaign), the state’s two premier senior consultants. The most interesting angle to watch here might be HOW, regardless of who wins, the victor intends to unite a fractured NJ-03 GOP and raise the funds necessary to dislodge freshman incumbent Andy Kim in what should be the state’s best Republican pick up opportunity. Team Gibbs is raw over Richter’s retreat to NJ-03 from NJ-02 after Jeff Van Drew switched parties.
Still undecided? Have an hour to deliberate? You can click here to watch the one-and-only NJ-03 debate moderated by yours truly.
5. NJ-05: McCann vs. Pallotta
Two-term incumbent Josh Gottheimer probably has $9+ million in the bank as I right this making him one of the country’s most well-heeled Democrat House candidates. It’s against this backdrop that four Republicans – 2018 nominee John McCann, financial industry veteran Frank Pallotta, perennial candidate Hector Castillo and educator James Baldini – are fighting for the Republican nomination.
Click here for a summary of the race (I kinda-sorta did one yesterday).
Hopeless? No… unless the current national environment continues to deteriorate for President Trump and the GOP. This is still an R+3 district that voted 48.8 – 47.7% for President Trump in 2016.
This contest is a personal one not unlike NJ-03. It’s also probably a jump ball. What’s certain: a win for Pallotta would soldify the (further) decline of the influence of the Zisa-led BCRO, a once formidable institution which controversially scrapped a committee vote and gave its line to McCann who lost by a wide double-digit margin two years ago. Many Bergen Republicans (including Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi and most of the county’s active Young Republicans) are now with Pallotta.
6. NJ-02
NJ-02 is your classic working/middle class “Obama-Trump district.” Long the bane of South Jersey Republican, former Democrat Jeff Van Drew famously switched to the GOP over impeachment last Christmas. He’s expected to easily dispatch a primary challenger on Tuesday, and he’ll face either Bridget Harrison (a college professor with Camden Machine backing) or Amy Kennedy (yes, of THAT Kennedy family) in November.
What to watch here: are there any cracks in the Trump coalition? We probably won’t really know the answer until November, but a very large hypothetical difference between participation in the Democrat Primary versus the GOP contest might be a warning sign regardless of the fact that the Republican fight isn’t considered competitive.
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