Just 2,800 supporters showed up at an event in Franklin County, Ohio, where he won by over 20-points in 2008; his crowd in critical Cuyahoga County is 20x smaller than four years ago.
Only 2,600 rallied in Green Bay, Wisconsin and 4,500 greeted their candidate in Las Vegas, Nevada; in 2008, the incumbent carried those cities’ counties by roughly 10- and 20-points, respectively.
Crowd size isn’t everything, Save Jerseyans, but it certainly says something important about voter enthusiasm. President Obama doesn’t have it this time around. It’s evident in his increasingly-negative rhetoric that contrasts sharply with Romney’s soaring appeals for change. Talk about a 2008 role reversal!
Pundits discount crowd size at their own peril. Voter enthusiasm directly impacts the composition of the November 6th electorate. Data from early voting, rallies, internal polling among key groups like Catholics in PA and Jews in Florida… all tangible reasons why Mitt’s camp is justifiably confident heading into Election Day. And it’s why yours truly doesn’t believe the skewed better-than-2008-for-Democrats public polling, and why I’m predicting a healthy Romney electoral victory on Tuesday.
Barone is right; fundamentals matter. Unlike four years ago, they’re almost universally working against Barack Obama in 2012. Mitt is winning.