The Shrinking President’s Crowds Continue to Shrink

Tens of thousands of supporters rally for Romney in Ohio.

Just 2,800 supporters showed up at an event in Franklin County, Ohio, where he won by over 20-points in 2008; his crowd in critical Cuyahoga County is 20x smaller than four years ago.

Only 2,600 rallied in Green Bay, Wisconsin and 4,500 greeted their candidate in Las Vegas, Nevada; in 2008, the incumbent carried those cities’ counties by roughly 10- and 20-points, respectively.

Crowd size isn’t everything, Save Jerseyans, but it certainly says something important about voter enthusiasm. President Obama doesn’t have it this time around. It’s evident in his increasingly-negative rhetoric that contrasts sharply with Romney’s soaring appeals for change. Talk about a 2008 role reversal!

Pundits discount crowd size at their own peril. Voter enthusiasm directly impacts the composition of the November 6th electorate. Data from early voting, rallies, internal polling among key groups like Catholics in PA and Jews in Florida… all tangible reasons why Mitt’s camp is justifiably confident heading into Election Day. And it’s why yours truly doesn’t believe the skewed better-than-2008-for-Democrats public polling, and why I’m predicting a healthy Romney electoral victory on Tuesday.

Barone is right; fundamentals matter. Unlike four years ago, they’re almost universally working against Barack Obama in 2012. Mitt is winning.


100 thoughts on “The Shrinking President’s Crowds Continue to Shrink

  1. No doubt, crowd sizes are much smaller for Obama this time around compared to 2008. But then again most people think Obama will win. There is definitely an enthusiasm gap. It would be interesting to compare crowd size between Obama and Romney within each city, though. We had that chance yesterday in my hometown of Dubuque.

    I had found out too late (Nov 2nd) that both Obama and Romney were coming to Dubuque on the same day (Nov 3rd). Living only two hours away, I thought it would be nice to finally see the President. But I was too late. Ticket sales closed early the day before the event. The police counts were 5,000 at Obama's event and 2100 for Romney's.

    Iowa is one of the swing states. In this Iowa town, voter enthusiasm, though less than 2008, was still significantly higher for Obama than Romney, given the events were in the same town on the same day.

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