“A vote for Kim Guadagno is a vote for a third term for Chris Christie,” the DGA’s new attack site screamed on the morning after. Here we go, folks…
ChristiesThirdTerm.com, a product of the DGA, was primed to launch before last night’s expected victory in the Republican Primary, but it’s nothing that the LG’s GOP opponents hadn’t said themselves for months.
Is the charge fair? No. It’s not.
Will it stick? Possibly! Life isn’t fair (especially not in this God-forsaken place), and there’s already some indication that it has in the early going.
A quick history lesson: At this point in 2009, after the primary campaign dust had settled, Chris Christie led then-Governor Jon Corzine by double-digits in the RCP polling average. The race tightened later in the race, naturally, but Christie never looked back for long, winning a thin but decisive 4.3-point victory in November.
Newly-minted N.J. GOP gubernatorial nominee Kim Guadagno begins the 2017 general election to succeed Christie in a very different position:
h/t Wikipedia
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kim Guadagno (R) |
Phil Murphy (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | April 26 – May 1, 2017 | 1,209 | ± 2.8% | 25% | 50% | 1% | 21% |
| Quinnipiac University | March 9–13, 2017 | 1,098 | ± 3% | 25% | 47% | 1% | 25% |
| Quinnipiac University | January 26–30, 2017 | 1,240 | ± 2.8% | 29% | 45% | 1% | 22% |
—
She may see a bit of a bounce after yesterday. We’ll see.
But generally speaking? With her own name recognition still relatively low after years of being boxed out of the limelight by the big guy, the fact that she’s (A) a generic-ish Republican and (B) Chris Christie’s #2 are the likely explanations for the wide gap. The Lieutenant Governor’s polling challenges are therefore arguably Christie’s doing because he’s been the one calling the shots (and tanking the NJGOP’s brand) for the past 7.5 years. We won’t beat a dead horse and explain “how.” You know how. Suffice it to say that the unpopular term-limited Republican incumbent’s approval ratings have languished in the toxic teens and low 20s for the past year and there’s no end in sight.
The primary challenge (how to motivate “the base”) is a separate but related issue.
245k Republicans voted on Tuesday (the current projection from pollster and political scientist Patrick Murray of Monmouth University). Back in 2009 for Christie vs. Lonegan, the final total was 334,215. Before worrying about persuadable Dems’ and Indies’ opinions of its candidate’s tenure with Chris Christie, the Guadagno campaign MUST find and motivate those 90,000-ish people, and the other citizens whom they represent, assuming of course that they haven’t to moved to North Carolina yet.
Can Kim “unstick” the 3rd term tag?
And unite the resistance?
Again… YES. But it’s going to take work.
More good news: Work isn’t something that scares the LG.
She’s tireless, and she gave a solid victory speech last night and promised to cut property taxes in hypothetical term #1 or quit. Kim Guadagno is also launching into an aggressive “Main Street versus Wall Street” post-victory retail tour to begin the process of creating a contrast between herself and Phil Murphy (D-Goldman Sachs).
Addressing the Christie 2.0 question head-on would be to dignify it. Bad idea. She’d be better off ramping up her criticism of the current administration’s unpopular decisions, a process which she began (but didn’t press on the gas for tactical reasons) during the primary.
Motivating the 53%+ of Republicans who showed up and voted for her yesterday? And the thousands of others who didn’t feel motivated enough to show up? Distinguishing herself from Christie is key since, without even seeing any data, I can tell you with 100% certainty that the non-Kim primary voters are not fans of him (at least not anymore).
Iornically? A mea culpa re: her support for RGGI (a regional cap and trade program which Christie nixed in one of his earlier, positive moves) would be an awesome start. How often do politicians admit they’re wrong? Never! So it’d turn heads in a good way, and it’d be totally explainable in the context of her new pledge to “cut taxes or quit Drumthwacket.” She could say that she slept on it and realized that, despite her commitment to the environment, New Jersey taxpayers cannot and should not endure any more nonsense until the state is back on its feet. #Honesty!
More ideas over here. And we’ll have plenty more in the coming weeks because hey, that’s what we do around here!
Help. God knows New Jersey needs it.
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