By Matt Rooney
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In no particular order…
(1) Turnout overall? There are three “seriously” contested GOP primaries today and maybe 1 1/2 on the Dem side (Sherrill has a real opponent in NJ-11; NJ-7 is over). How does Republican enthusiasm tack up against Democrat enthusiasm? The GOP has recovered its polling position nationally heading into the summer, but blue-ish states like New Jersey and California are where a lot of the action is this time around. Many of these seats are open, too, thanks to retirements. Let’s see whether Republicans in New Jersey are coming back to life like their fellow party members elsewhere. The fate of the House could depend upon it.
(2) CD-2: Can Sam Fiocchi upset Hirsh Singh? The latter is favored to beat the former, who lost reelection to the legislature in 2015, but Fiocchi’s name recognition throughout the LD1 portion of CD2, which is substantial, could theoretically make things interesting despite Fiocchi’s lack of cash.
Wildcard: can one of the other remaining candidates (former Freeholder and well-known local activist Seth Grossman) pull enough votes out of Atlantic County to blunt Hirsh Singh’s line advantage there? Where roughly 1/3 of the primary votes will originate? If he does in a low turnout model, and Fiocchi wins LD1, we could see a close race or even a surprise.
(3) CD-5: Jump ball? If you made most veteran prognosticators guess, Steve Lonegan has the name recognition and John McCann is an unknown quantity outside of Bergen and insider circles. So yeah, he was the front runner. But will Lonegan’s name recognition prove a double-edged sword? McCann, who has the lines in counties and boasts some strength in counties with hard-to-decipher battle lines, made his opponent’s repeat unsuccessful runs for higher office an issue in the race, and he’s spent a ton of money in the closing several days of the race (e.g. seems like I see a McCain ad on every website I visit).
Everyone I talk to concedes this is the hardest of the three hotly-contest NJGOP House primaries to pick a winner. By the way: the McCann forces say they’re up in their internal polling.
(4) CD-11: Will De Neufville or Ghee topple Webber? And if not, which finishes second? For an upset to happen, Tony Ghee, recruited by Essex’s Al Barlas to challenge Jay Webber and armed with the Passaic line, would likely need to get a super-majority of votes out of Wayne and Totowa AND, probably, the well-heeled De Neufville’s spending blitz would’ve needed to significantly muddy the waters in line-less Morris County.
None of that is impossible but most observers on the ground (on both sides of the Morris and anti-Morris divide) seem to think that Webber, far-and-away the best known candidate who’s repeatedly represented LD26 as its top Assembly vote-getter, the largest chunk of NJ-11, is running well-ahead of his four rivals. We’ll see soon enough.
The observers we’re talking to are looking to see if Webber wins with a plurality or straight-up majority and, as a follow-up question, who finishes second? And what does that second place finish mean for the players behind this year’s contest both inside and outside of Morris? Particularly ahead of a bruising Morris GOP chairman’s contest?
(5) Populist revolt in NJ-2? Jeff Van Drew WILL win the Democrat Primary down in deep South Jersey. What will his margin look like? He’s been pulling hard left since announcing for the seat after establishing a state legislative record that’s far more moderate, and it’s bought him some critics both inside and outside of the district including that Hogg kid from Parkland. There’s even a serious contender for the AC Democrat chairmanship who strongly inferred this week that he isn’t “progressive” enough. This could be fun to watch.
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