By Matt Rooney
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Cory Booker is back home and running for U.S. Senate, Save Jerseyans, following his short-lived presidential campaign which didn’t even make it to Iowa. Iowa’s gain is clearly our loss.
Who are New Jersey Republicans putting up to face him? TBD.
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Some background:
New Jersey hasn’t elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate for 48 years. Clifford Case won reelection in 1972 but six years and a lot of Watergate trouble later, Case fell to Jeff Bell in the primary who was ultimately defeated by Bill Bradley in the 1978 general. Most recently? Former Celgene CEO Bob Hugin invested $36 million of his OWN MONEY into his 2018 challenge to Bob Menendez; notwithstanding Menendez’s personal unpopularity and then-recent indictment, the Republican lost by double-digits.
Needless to say, Republicans are having a hard time attracting “A Team” challengers for New Jersey U.S. Senate races. By “A Team” I mean candidates with built-in name recognition and demonstrated fundraising ability.
This year, Booker’s celebrity and President Trump’s internal party popularity (as well as the lack of a “big fish” front runner) attracted a small army of Republican candidates: pharmacist/attorney Rik Mehta, millennial Hirsh Singh, whistleblower attorney Stuart Meissner, former Monmouth County freeholder Gary Rich, and repeat candidates Tricia Flanagan and Natalie Rivera.
Mehta ($190,280 cash on hand), Singh ($28,602 cash on hand) and Meissner ($186,865 cash on hand) are the only three who’ve raised “significant” money (defined here as enough to report to the FEC and maybe pay some consultants).
Singh was thought to be a slight favorite for the nomination heading into this cycle. Having run (albeit unsuccessfully) for the 2017 gubernatorial nomination and later 2018 NJ-02 House nomination, Singh was at least a known quantity to Republican leaders, some of which were intrigued by his profile as a charismatic young Indian American with a strong pro-Trump profile.They were willing to overlook a relatively thin professional resume and a history of unrealized fundraising hype. Singh even garnered some favorable attention from national conservative media outlets in recent months including Fox News and the Washington Examiner. Still, it was never a love marriage.
Enter Mehta. No one knew who he was until a few months ago. That’s rapidly changing. NJGOP National Committeeman Bill Palatucci had previously endorsed Singh but, as recently as Friday was reportedly introducing Mehta to Monmouth County Republicans. Two other plugged-in Republicans told me over the weekend that this isn’t an accident; the establishment may now be coalescing around Mehta who they view as a stronger, arguably more substantial alternative to Singh who also happens to be well-versed on the all-important health care issue. Mehta carried the Union County convention last week – this cycle’s first awarded line – by a solid margin of 56 votes over Singh who placed second.
Meissner is the wild card. Trumpian insofar as he’s rough around the edges, plain-spoken and loves Twitter, this political neophyte has invested tens of thousands of his own dollars in his campaign and retained an experienced team that includes former NJGOP Executive Director Pete Sheridan and ex-CRNC Chairwoman and comms expert Alex Wilkes. He pulled only 8 votes at the Union convention but could improve at future conventions with a little more polish, practice and, of course, potential help from Mehta/Singh if the pair ends up waging a competitive war and eating into each other’s bases of committee support. That’s a hypothetical.
The campaigns of Rich, Flanagan and Rivera aren’t attracting serious attention to date, hypothetically or otherwise.
Rich seems unlikely to earn the backing of his own home county. Like Rich, neither Flanagan or Rivera have filed FEC reports as of this writing which could mean they haven’t hit the $5,000 mandatory reporting threshold. Flanagan does have a sizable Twitter following of almost 25,000 which is a nice start but, then again, some teenage Fortnite fanatics have larger-than-average social media followings. Flanagan would need 250,000 followers to compensate for a lack of funds assuming that’s her current situation.
We may know a bit more about this race after tonight’s Somerset County convention. We also don’t know what, if any, significant differences there are among these candidates on the ideological front. There hasn’t been a debate to date and may never be.
If Mehta wins in Somerset? It’s bad news for Singh. Mehta will be the new “soft” front runner.
If Singh prevails? A two-to-three man contest may be in the offing.
If there’s a surprise victor? Remember: GOP leaders don’t believe Booker is beatable in November so they’re (generally) not leaning hard on their members. Strange stuff happens. In the 2014 U.S. Senate contest, Jeff Bell came out of nowhere and won the nomination with a smart targeting strategy that capitalized on a multi-candidate field and a lack of a state-wide Republican consensus emerging from convention season. It was a similar story in 2018 in NJ-02 when Seth Grossman upset Hirsh Singh (the counties were all over the place).
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